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The lifting pressure of RMB did not reduce

Todays Date: December 11, 2018

China Customs has announced a December 2010 trade data, exports 154.15 billion U.S. dollars, up 17.9%; imports 141.07 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.6%; month trade surplus was 13.08 billion U.S. dollars. 2010 full-year exports of $ 1,577,930,000,000, up 31.3%; import $ 1,394,830,000,000, up 38.7%; annual trade surplus of 183.1 billion U.S. dollars, down 6.4%.

Peng Wensheng, CICC Chief Economist, said in December, seasonally adjusted chain exports turned negative, import growth narrowed: December seasonally adjusted exports were down 1.7%, mainly due to seasonally adjusted exports in November increased 9.7% qoq , significantly higher than the same period in previous years performance, may reflect the U.S. and Europe this year, ahead of the Christmas season orders to 11 months, part of the overdraft in December exports.

“12 months of imports seasonally adjusted chain although still positive growth (4.4%), but lower than in November the chain growth (12%) had come down significantly, also subject to high base effect.” Wensheng Peng case analysis.

Nomura, Kazuo Kinoshita, and Sun Chi Chi noted that although the December seasonally adjusted exports were down 4.4%, but still remain strong. For most developed economies are slowing export growth year on year, of which U.S. export growth fell to 18.0% from 32.2%; exports to Europe fell 18.3% from 33.8%. While exports to Japan fell 14.0% from 36.7%. In addition, ASEAN’s export growth from 11 to 23.7% in January fell to 4.75% year on year. View from the product categories, export of electromechanical products increased by 16.3%, 14.2% export growth in high-tech products.

It should be noted that imports of cars and car chassis, an increase of 47.7%, while imports of goods of general trade grew 36.9% to 81.5 billion U.S. dollars. “This shows that China’s imports for domestic consumption is increasing the proportion (57.7%).” Nomura Securities analyst on the China Business News reporter.

In addition, Nomura Securities analyst pointed out that the trade surplus in December from November’s 22.9 billion narrowed to 13.1 billion U.S. dollars, lower than expected (expected 208 billion). The year 2010, 32.3% export growth for the year, import growth rate of 41.6% year on year, partly due to commodity prices. Annual trade surplus narrowed to 184.5 billion U.S. dollars (6.9% lower than in 2009).

Look forward, Wensheng Peng, “said the fourth quarter of exports below the historical average chain may reflect structural factors (financial crisis, the weakening in import demand in developed economies) and short-term factors (including the cold winter weather may make the logistics more difficult ) effects; but four from the previous quarter is still positive growth, indicating the export growth rate will show a steady year on year, rather than the momentum of rapid decline. ”

Sub-regional perspective, the gold analyst on China Chinese Commercial News reporters Fen Xi and Zhi Chu, significant growth in foreign trade in central and western regions, including Gansu, Tibet, Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, the total import and export of high growth rate, much higher than the overall national level. View by product: 2010, export growth, mechanical and electrical products and machinery and equipment are higher than 30%; clothing, textiles, luggage, toys and other labor-intensive products were 20.9% and 28.4%, 40.8% and 29.4%.

The import side, imports of iron ore in 2010 decreased by 1.4%, soybean imports grew by 28.8%, machinery and electronic products and automobile imports increased significantly (wholesale products), were 34.4% and 93.4%.

“It is worth noting that in January the main import commodities were mixed, but the full amount of imports rose.” Peng Jinsheng predicted that if the renminbi is appropriate to accelerate, rising commodity prices in 2011 on the impact of more moderate CPI.

China’s gold analyst in Chinese Commercial News reporters Fen Xi and Yu Ce (china business), the total annual surplus of up to $ 183,180,000,000 still continue to bring pressure of RMB appreciation. We expect the next 12 months will be real effective exchange rate rose by 5%, while the pace of appreciation may be accelerated with the rise in inflationary pressures, due to rising commodity and food prices is to promote the domestic CPI inflation factors, and contribute RMB appreciation imported bring relief commodities imported inflation. Appreciation of the RMB against US dollar will depend on the cross rates between U.S. dollar and other major currencies. From: wholesale electronics

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